This week, several regions in Earth-view have been growing pretty active with Region 4317 being the first to launch a storm at Earth. But far from being a direct hit, this storm might have to do some fancy dancing with some fast solar wind to give us more than a bumpy ride. But that might actually happen thanks to the fortuitous location of some coronal holes. Fast wind from these holes might actually flip the storm a bit on its side as it comes towards Earth, which would put Earth more in the storm’s path and give aurora photographers a great chance at seeing aurora down to mid-latitudes by January 1. But even if the storm only gives a glancing blow, the fast wind will give those at high latitudes some decent shows that could last until January 2 before things calm down. On top of that we have another storm that could give us a glancing blow late on January 2 so aurora could continue to be visible to mid-latitudes through January 3.
Flare activity is also on the rise, with Region 4325 causing an R2-level radio blackout back on December 27 and Region 4324 showing signs of flare activity as well. Region 4325 is just about to enter the Earth-strike zone so we will be watching it quite carefully. Amateur radio operators and aviators should expect more noise on the dayside HF and VHF bands, but the risk for R3-level blackouts and radiation storms remains reasonably low. Expect these conditions to persist over the next 3-5 days at least, with activity slowly beginning to wane starting early next week. GPS users should stay vigilant on both the day and nightside of Earth near aurora and near dawn and dusk.

This week has been an interesting one on the Sun to say the least. We started off watching Region 4299 very closely, but after a single X1.95-flare, that region seems to have spent much of its energy. We also have a large cluster of three regions, just south of the solar equator, which impressed a lot of folks with the sheer size of the cluster, but overall, this set of regions has also been well-behaved. Instead, new Region 4300 has taken center stage. Despite being the smallest by far of the big-flare players, it continues to show promise, firing an M6.0 flare within the last 24 hours and launching a modest non-Earth-directed solar storm. With all these regions in Earth-view, amateur radio operators should expect a lot of noise on the dayside radio bands as well as a high risk for radio blackouts above the R1-level. These conditions should persist through the end of the week.

As for aurora photographers, those at high latitudes should be enjoying aurora views from a nice burst of fast solar wind. Although the fast wind had bumped us to G3-levels for a short while, mid-latitude aurora chasers might be disappointed at the fleeting shows. Sadly, this coronal hole is underperforming compared to last month, with slower wind, and an overall shorter duration due to the hole being slightly smaller than it was last month. That being said, one of the recent solar storm launches took part of the overlying field “cover” off the coronal hole western edge. In effect, this made the coronal hole larger, and so the next time we see this region (in about 28 days from now) we could see a stronger fast wind stream again. Wild to think that a solar storm blast can enlarge a coronal hole, but indeed it can!

Our Sun has gotten busy! We have three solar storms on their way to Earth and along with a fast wind chaser, this should keep aurora possibilities high through week’s end. Aurora photographers will likely get a treat at high latitudes throughout the week, and those at mid-latitudes could catch the peak of the show around October 16-17. Amateur radio and GPS operators should expect degraded conditions on Earth’s dayside thanks to the rapid growth of Regions 4246 and 4248 as they rotate through some hot longitudes. The noise on the dayside bands has also steadily increased, with things expected to get worse over the next week. Expect the risk for X-flares (R3-level Radio Blackouts) to rise over the next few days. Learn the details of the coming solar storms, watch the growth of Regions 4246 and 4248, and see what is coming around from the Sun’s farside.

This week our Sun kicks things into high gear starting with a surprisingly strong period of storming from some fast solar wind. The magic ingredient was a magnetic island growing inside the coronal hole generating the wind, which led to huge aurora shows deep into mid-latitudes at Earth. Although the fast wind is still ongoing, the peak of the storm has passed and we should return to calm conditions on Earth’s nightside in the next day or so. That being said, new regions are growing fast on the Sun’s east limb and that means big flares and radio blackouts are expected to return later in the week on earth’s dayside. Noise on the dayside radio bands will also start increasing over the next few days so amateur radio operators and GPS users should stay vigilant for more signal degradation and reception issues. Learn the details of what caused the strong G3-level storming, catch aurora highlights from recent storms, and find out how the new east limb activity will affect you.

We have two Earth-directed solar storms hitting Earth now! The first, is a stealth-like CME, which is wispy and short, but the second and much larger storm has a hidden surprise. Its signature during the eruption and later in coronagraph imagery signals that there may be quite a bit of coronal material on its way to us. This may be why we are already seeing a strong shock signature before the event has even arrived. Aurora photographers could get a great show if the magnetic field of this storm is favorably oriented, even down into mid-latitudes. However, radio operators and GPS users should expect the next couple of days will bring disruptions and mild inconveniences with respect to radio signal propagation and GPS reception. Precision farmers, satellite navigation users, and UAV pilots should remain extra vigilant over the next couple of days as unexpected signal fades or erroneous navigation and timing signals are possible. Learn the details of this coming storm, see when aurora may be visible, and find out what else our Sun has in store.

Despite our Sun quieting down for a spell, but don’t be fooled, more activity is just around the corner. A big coronal hole will be rotating through the Earth-strike zone in just a couple of days, so aurora photographers, expect the chance for aurora possible through Wednesday of next week. That being said, the coming fast solar wind will have the wrong magnetic polarity so aurora shows may be somewhat subdued, but the dim moon will help ensure we get the most out of the show. Now might be a good time to catch the waning Perseid meteor shower as well. Amateur radio operators should also enjoy a few more days of quieter conditions than last week. This is because the biggest flare players have all rotated to the Sun’s farside. However, some of them will begin rotating back into view on the Sun’s east limb in about 4 days so enjoy the break from radio blackouts, while you have it! Learn the details of the coming fast wind, watch the Sun’s symmetry create a living work of art (again!), and see how we know there are big players on the Sun’s farside.

Description update August 5: This week a fast-growing sunspot cluster on the Sun’s farside takes center stage. The cluster named Region 4165 emerged quickly and soon split into two regions as it entered Earth’s view. The newest part, Region 4168, has now not only fired multiple large flares, but just today has launched an Earth-directed solar storm. Although we are still waiting on coronagraph data, it looks like the storm could reach Earth sometime late on August 7. Watch this forecast for details on how this sunspot cluster originally emerged on the farside and grew to the big flare player it is now and more.

This week our Sun is giving us a puzzle to solve. A complex solar storm has hit Earth, but thus far it has been all northward field. This means amateur radio operators may have noticed some improvement on the nightside radio bands, but aurora photographers have been underwhelmed. Expect these conditions to continue through today. Outside of this ongoing storm, we do have a lot of new regions on the East limb of the Sun and more that will rotate into Earth-view over the next several days. Expect more noise on the dayside radio bands starting around Thursday as this region rotates into view. Not sure if it will be active enough to cause big radio blackouts, but its rapid growth makes bigger flares and solar storm launches a possibility. Learn the details of this triple front storm, fins out where aurora is happening, and see what else our Sun has in store.

Our Sun is finally showing signs of waking up! Along with the extended fast solar wind that has been hitting Earth over the past few days, we have several recent filament eruptions, one of which looks like it might give us a little disturbance as it passes nearby Earth, plus some active regions clusters that are growing. This means we may see some enhanced storming starting July 18 that peaks around July 19. Aurora photographers at high latitudes might get a bit more aurora than usual, but mid-latitude watchers will likely need to continue waiting for better conditions. Back at the Sun, the growing active region cluster has already caused the risk for solar flares and radio blackouts to increase. Amateur radio operators and GPS users might see conditions get noisier, especially on the dayside radio bands over the next few days. In addition to the growing activity on the Sun’s farside, it looks like we will need to stay on our toes both this week and next! Learn the details of the growing activity, watch some spectacular filament launches, and see what else our Sun has in store.

Our Sun continues creating some gorgeous art this week, launching simultaneous filament eruptions off the Sun’s west limb. Although those are not Earth-directed, we are being hit by a mini solar storm now with minor effects thus far. We also will get some fast wind as a chaser over the next few days, but again, the impacts might be a bit underwhelming. We will be lucky to reach G1 storm levels, if at all. Aurora photographers at higher latitudes might get a bit of a show (especially in the southern hemisphere), but aurora photographers at mid-latitudes need to be savvy in how to catch substorm brightenings if they plan to chase. In addition, amateur radio operators will hear noise increasing on the dayside radio bands, but luckily, the risk for radio blackouts will continue to remain low. This is due to several regions on the Sun’s farside that are rotating into Earth-view., but thus far their activity levels remain low. Learn the details of the storm hitting now and the fast solar wind to come, watch the gorgeous dual filament eruptions over the Sun’s west limb and find out what else our Sun has in store.