Happy Thanksgiving Everyone! Im on the road this week, but our Sun is hard at work! Activity is picking up, big time. We have no less than 11 active regions in Earth-view right now with more rotating into view over the next few days. Several of these are X-flare players, which means lots of radio noise and potential for radio blackouts on Earth’s dayside. Amateur radio operators, expect radio propagation to suffer over the next week or more before things quiet down. In addition, we have a partially Earth-directed solar storm on its way. This storm could graze Earth starting the afternoon of the 25th so aurora photographers be sure to stay on your toes. GPS users should also stay vigilant because both the radio noise and the solar storm can cause reception issues at dawn and dusk and anywhere near aurora. Learn the details of the coming solar storm and fast solar wind, watch the fast growth and flare potential of all these new emerging regions, and see what else our Sun has in store this week.
This week our Sun continues a moderate level of activity. Region 3473, as it was just rotating into Earth view, launched a massive solar storm, which is grazing Earth now. Along with some fast solar wind from a large coronal hole these bumpy conditions have caused aurora visible at high latitudes. Views at mid-latitudes remain sporadic through Halloween. As the fast wind wanes over the next serval days, shows are expected to retreat to high latitudes. As we shift into November, conditions should gradually calm down. Solar flare risk rises this week, mainly due to region 3474, which shows increased flare activity and poses a risk of radio blackouts. New big-flare regions are also returning to Earth-view from the Sun’s farside later this week. Amateur radio operators should notice a slight rise in noise on the dayside radio bands this week. GPS users should also remain vigilant during radio blackout events, especially near dawn and dusk. Luckily, the risk for radiation storms remains relatively low. Learn the details of the recent solar storm launch grazing Earth, and what it means for more activity, find out what active regions will be rotating into Earth-view, and see what else our Sun has in store this week.
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Our Sun remains active, launching no less than four solar storms in our general direction, but most of these are wispy and will have a soft landing at Earth. At least one of these storms is already impacting Earth, bringing aurora to high latitudes. However, aurora photographers at mid-latitudes will likely have to wait until October 20 when a larger and faster-moving storm is expected to hit. Solar flare activity has also calmed down this week and the risk of radio blackouts has dropped quite a bit. Amateur radio operators should enjoy decent radio propagation on the dayside of Earth, without too much noise. These conditions will likely continue over the next few days before some bigger regions on the Sun’s farside rotate into view. GPS users will also notice improved reception on the dayside of Earth but will need to remain vigilant near dawn and dusk and also near aurora on earth’s nightside. Learn the details of the coming solar storms, watch the big farside blast from regions not yet in Earth-view, and see what else our Sun has in store this week!
You might notice something different. This forecast is the first in a new “broadcast style” of delivery I am developing. It was recorded live with interactive graphics and only minor editing. As such, it has a totally different feel (along with a few audio errors that I am still working out). Stay tuned as I continue to perfect this method of delivery. With a little luck and lots of practice, I will soon be able to deliver these kinds of detailed and graphically complex forecasts live, which means less post-production and more frequent forecasts!
This week solar activity increases Earthside with several solar storm launches that could give us a glancing blow followed by a fast wind chaser. Although not very strong, the combination of these three things could enhance effects enough to give us some aurora. Aurora photographers, especially at high latitudes could get some nice views through the weekend. In addition, our Sun fires its first big flare in more than a week. However, most of the Sun’s active regions (in Earth’s view) are stable so amateur radio operators will continue to enjoy decent radio propagation on Earth’s dayside with only low risk for radio blackouts this week. That being said, noise on the bands may increase as we move into next week when growing regions on the Sun’s farside rotate back into Earth view. GPS users should also enjoy decent reception in these mild conditions, with the exception of the weekend when the storming will be at its peak. Learn the details of the coming storms, see when and where aurora may be visible and find out what else our Sun has in store.
This week much of the activity is on the farside of the Sun, giving us a much needed break. After the multiple X-class flares and G3-level solar storm we sure can use it! That being said, we do have a large coronal hole that will be rotating through the Earth-strike zone over the next couple of days and it will send us some fast solar wind. Aurora photographers, especially at high latitudes could get a bit of a show, especially considering we are hitting the peak of the Perseid meteor shower now, coincident with a new moon, and viewing conditions will be spectacular over the next few days. Amateur radio operators should also enjoy spectacular propagation on Earth’s dayside since the solar flux remains well into the triple digits and the radio noise has quieted considerably. GPS users should also enjoy excellent reception, even during the notoriously troublesome hours around dawn and dusk. Catch up with gorgeous aurora photos from the recent solar storm, watch how the solar flares impacted radio communications via the GEOCHRON clock, and see what else our Sun has in store this week.
This week our Sun kicks into high gear launching a train of solar storms towards Earth. The first two should arrive on August 4th with a third arriving early to midday August 5th. We will likely bump up to G1 storm levels, with activity peaking on the 5th, but lasting possibly through the 6th before calming down. Aurora photographers could get views down to mid-latitudes if the orientation of these solar storms is favorable. In addition, we have several active regions in view this week that are keeping the solar flux well into the 160s and keeping radio blackout risk high. Amateur radio operators should expect moderate noise levels on the dayside radio bands to last throughout this week. GPS users should also remain vigilant for reception issues near dawn and dusk and also anywhere near aurora on Earth’s nightside once the solar storms hit. Learn the details of the coming solar storms, find out when and where aurora may be visible, and see what else our Sun has in store this week.
This week, the big events are focused on the Sun’s farside, but we still have quite a bit of activity facing Earth, including an Earth-directed solar storm. Sadly, nothing spoils a good aurora forecast like a solar storm hitting early. Even though NASA and NOAA predicted the arrival on July 26, the storm had its own timeline and beat even the most optimistic predictions, arriving late on July 25th. We have already seen aurora down as far south as places like Ireland in the UK, and South Dakota, Montana, and Idaho in the USA. The solar storm is beginning to wane now, but sporadic shows are still likely over the next 24 hours. Solar flares also should quiet down here over the next couple of days as Regions 3372, 3373, and 3376 rotate to the Sun’s farside. We will have a small reprieve when it comes to noise on the dayside radio bands for a few days before things ramp back up again with some returning regions rotating into view. Amateur radio operators should be sure to enjoy the short-lived break. Learn the details of the solar storm hitting now, see the big farside blast that Region 3363 just unleashed on the farside, and learn how much time we have until big activity returns to Earth-view.
Our Sun has been extremely busy this week firing off so many glancing solar storm blows that the media has had a hard time keeping track of all of the action. In particular Region 3363 has been a major source of this activity, topping things off with a whopper of a solar storm launch on 17 July during an M5.7-flare. This solar storm is predicted to graze Earth sometime by mid-day July 20. Aurora photographers should keep their batteries charged as not only this, but one more storm following it have upped aurora chances through the 22 July. Amateur radio operators and GPS users should also stay vigilant this week as we still have a heightened risk for radio blackouts on Earth’s dayside. Add to that the solar storm impacts on Earth’s nightside over the next few days and that means radio signal disruptions will be a common occurrence, day or night, over the next few days. Learn the details of the coming solar storm, watch as we say goodbye to Region 3363, and see what new activity our Sun has in store has in store this week. Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Our Sun gives us a mixed bag this week with several glancing blows from solar storms and some R1-R2-level radio blackouts. Most of the activity is due to region 3354, which is continuing to make its way across the earth-facing disk and will rotate to the Sun’s farside in about four days. Aurora photographers at high latitudes should get a good chance for aurora with these glancing blows along with a small pocket of fast solar wind sandwiched in between them. However, aurora photographers at mid-latitudes may have a harder time, especially with the bright full moon competing with dim aurora. Amateur radio operators should continue to expect a lot of noise on the radio bands on Earth’s dayside along with short-lived radio blackouts and GPS users need to stay vigilant for reception issues, especially near dawn, dusk, and anywhere near aurora on the nightside. Learn the details of the activity from region 3354, see when aurora may be visible and find out what else our Sun has in store.