We have a solar storm that could side-swipe Earth over the next couple of days. Because the eruption was large and on the hairy edge of the Earth-strike zone, forecasting the strength of its impact at Earth is challenging. In this week’s Solar Storm Forecast I go over these in detail. In addition to the solar storm, we have more fast solar wind coming later this week due to the heart-shaped coronal hole that will be rotating into the Earth-strike zone starting October 3. Aurora photographers, especially at high latitudes could get some decent shows this week. We also have a cluster of active regions rotating back into Earth view. This means we could see solar flux rise back above 100, which should help radio propagation on the dayside. Radio operators should expect the noise to also rise on the dayside bands just a little, but overall the risk for radio blackouts should remain minor through the rest of this week.

This week our Sun shows us just how far into the declining phase we have come! Our first spotless disk arrived September 19. Although it lasted less than a day, it marks a milestone for Cycle 25. Compared to average cycles, the first spotless sign typically means we have less than three years before solar minimum. This signature is right on target with predictions, which show minimum in 2029. Whether the Sun will continue the descent towards minimum at an accelerated pace has yet to be seen (the latest predictions have us 6-10 months ahead of schedule). But for the moment, this is a good indicator of things to come.

As for the current activity, we have some fast solar wind coming. It should arrive starting late on September 23 into the 24th, so aurora photographers, especially at high latitudes, keep on the lookout for aurora. Mid-latitude watchers might have more of a challenge to catch some shows, but substorms are possible, especially on the 24th. As for amateur radio operators and GPS users, the dayside radio bands have been pretty quiet over this past week, but noise is slowly returning– so much for our spotless sun. Not only is Region 4534 beginning to fire large C-class flares, but a region on the East limb is also firing big flares and launching solar storms. Radio operators should expect the R1-R2-level radio blackout risk to rise throughout the week. GPS users should stay vigilant, especially if flare activity rises while the fast solar wind hits, because the sudden changes could make the upper atmosphere more turbulent.

Our Sun keeps things interesting this week with multiple solar storms grazing Earth while Earth surfs the edge of some fast solar wind from an elongated coronal hole. This means we will be getting a bumpy ride with on and off fast wind and southward magnetic fields. Aurora chasers at high latitudes should already be enjoying some views already and chasers at mid-latitudes will get a better chance over the next two days. Amateur radio operators can expect the dayside radio bands to improve now that the radiation storm has waned, but communication on the nightside will likely remain a bit unpredictable through the 18th due to the on-again, off-again storming and aurora. GPS users might also notice a few glitches, especially near dawn and dusk and at high latitudes, but conditions will improve as we move into the weekend. This Space Weather Mid-Week Forecast goes into the details of the storms that are side-swiping Earth this week, including the effects of the fast solar wind, and how the radiation storm has been affecting conditions at high latitudes.

This week our Sun is slow-dripping a bit of extra material off the heels of a filament eruption, which, combined with a far-sided blast, has made for a tangled mess of a coronagraph signature. This is always an issue because it makes the Earth-directed part of the event harder to isolate. As it turns out, these “leaky” storms may mean we could be in for a mild disturbance through the 18th, especially when there will be some fast solar wind coming along for the ride. Aurora photographers might get some decent aurora opportunities at high latitudes, with a touch of something down into mid-latitudes (although those shows will be very fleeting). Also this week, new regions rotate into Earth view, which is already bumping up the solar flux and creating a little bit more noise on the dayside radio bands. Overall through, the increase in activity might actually help give dayside propagation a boost, since we are beginning to notice worsening conditions as we move ever closer to solar minimum. Learn more about the incoming solar storms, find out what a rise in activity means for radio operators and GPS users, and see what else our Sun has in store this week.

This week has been filled by a confluence of celestial events! First, we had a set of solar storms hitting late on August 11. Then, on August 12, a total solar eclipse graced the northern hemisphere. This was either a photographer’s best dream or worst nightmare– catching a total solar eclipse and aurora on the same day (August 12). Throw in the peak of the Perseid meteor shower that is peaking now in the northeast sky just before dawn, and you can forget about sleeping until after the 13th. Since the moon will be new, the coming solar storm should give us a decent show, even if it will be on the weak side. Aurora photographers at mid-latitudes, be prepared to chase substorms at times, but conditions are such that the shows could linger for longer than expected, thanks to a weak pocket of fast solar wind that will come on the heels of the storm. Amateur radio operators and GPS users should expect mild to moderate disturbances in the northern hemisphere and anywhere near the path of totality. The solar storms will exacerbate conditions slightly, but the risk for radio blackouts on the dayside of Earth will remain low through the end of the work week. That being said, the noise on the dayside radio bands is expected to rise slowly as the week progresses due to some new regions emerging on the east limb as well as several regions rotating into view from the Sun’s farside. So enjoy the quiet conditions while you can. Conditions may get more noisy as we move into next week.

This week we keep a watchful eye on an active sun with ten sunspot clusters now in Earth view, dominated by activity along the east limb. Newly arrived regions 4446, 4447, and 4455 are firing solar flares and lunching solar storms, although none are earth-directed yet. Region 4441 launched a massive solar storm as it rotated off the west limb of the Sun that gave us some great eye-candy, but its headed towards the farside. That being said, it was strong enough to trigger an S1 radiation storm that has been creating a bit of extra noise on the amateur radio bands. Luckily, the radiation storm is waning and we should be back to normal levels within the next 24 hours. Fast solar wind driven by coronal holes is creating a “bumpy ride” for near-Earth space, and with SDO, STEREO, and Solar Orbiter providing full-sun coverage, the forecast calls for a 40% chance of M-class flares, potential R1–R2 radio blackouts, and a 35% chance of minor geomagnetic storm conditions for high-latitude aurora photographers over the coming days, while GPS users and polar aviation remain largely unaffected.

Space weather is calming down after recent activity, with fast solar wind and a mini-solar storm launch causing us to reach storm levels. But more is on the way. This weekend, expect more aurora due to more fast solar wind. It also looks like we will be headed for a spotless Sun again soon. Check out the details as well as the chances for aurora, solar flares, and potential for radio blackouts too. Get the full outlook for the week ahead!

The fun just keeps coming this week! Even though Region 4366 will be rotating to the farside over the next few days, there is still plenty of activity. Region 4371 has launched a mini-solar storm at Earth, which could hit us late on Thursday or possibly early Friday. Although it is a small storm, aurora photographers at high latitudes could still get a bit of a show. On top of this, several returning regions, including old Region 4341 are returning to the east limb, which means big solar flares are likely to continue. The last time Region 4341 was in Earth-view was both flare active and a solar storm producer, and from the looks of it, that has not changed. Amateur radio operators should expect the dayside radio bands to continue to be a bit noisy this week. Things may quiet down a little bit over the next few days, but the returning regions will likely prevent the noise floor from dropping below the “moderate” range this week. We will likely see more M-class flare activity, so the risk for radio blackouts at the R1-R2-level will remain elevated, but the risk for X-class flares (R3-level) should drop to the single digits by the weekend, as long as the returning regions behave as expected. Learn about the returning regions, say goodbye to Region 4366, and see what else our Sun has in store.

This week, several regions in Earth-view have been growing pretty active with Region 4317 being the first to launch a storm at Earth. But far from being a direct hit, this storm might have to do some fancy dancing with some fast solar wind to give us more than a bumpy ride. But that might actually happen thanks to the fortuitous location of some coronal holes. Fast wind from these holes might actually flip the storm a bit on its side as it comes towards Earth, which would put Earth more in the storm’s path and give aurora photographers a great chance at seeing aurora down to mid-latitudes by January 1. But even if the storm only gives a glancing blow, the fast wind will give those at high latitudes some decent shows that could last until January 2 before things calm down. On top of that we have another storm that could give us a glancing blow late on January 2 so aurora could continue to be visible to mid-latitudes through January 3.
Flare activity is also on the rise, with Region 4325 causing an R2-level radio blackout back on December 27 and Region 4324 showing signs of flare activity as well. Region 4325 is just about to enter the Earth-strike zone so we will be watching it quite carefully. Amateur radio operators and aviators should expect more noise on the dayside HF and VHF bands, but the risk for R3-level blackouts and radiation storms remains reasonably low. Expect these conditions to persist over the next 3-5 days at least, with activity slowly beginning to wane starting early next week. GPS users should stay vigilant on both the day and nightside of Earth near aurora and near dawn and dusk.

This week has been an interesting one on the Sun to say the least. We started off watching Region 4299 very closely, but after a single X1.95-flare, that region seems to have spent much of its energy. We also have a large cluster of three regions, just south of the solar equator, which impressed a lot of folks with the sheer size of the cluster, but overall, this set of regions has also been well-behaved. Instead, new Region 4300 has taken center stage. Despite being the smallest by far of the big-flare players, it continues to show promise, firing an M6.0 flare within the last 24 hours and launching a modest non-Earth-directed solar storm. With all these regions in Earth-view, amateur radio operators should expect a lot of noise on the dayside radio bands as well as a high risk for radio blackouts above the R1-level. These conditions should persist through the end of the week.

As for aurora photographers, those at high latitudes should be enjoying aurora views from a nice burst of fast solar wind. Although the fast wind had bumped us to G3-levels for a short while, mid-latitude aurora chasers might be disappointed at the fleeting shows. Sadly, this coronal hole is underperforming compared to last month, with slower wind, and an overall shorter duration due to the hole being slightly smaller than it was last month. That being said, one of the recent solar storm launches took part of the overlying field “cover” off the coronal hole western edge. In effect, this made the coronal hole larger, and so the next time we see this region (in about 28 days from now) we could see a stronger fast wind stream again. Wild to think that a solar storm blast can enlarge a coronal hole, but indeed it can!