Weekly Forecast Videos

TamithaSkov

TamithaSkov
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen This week our Star really fakes us out with two big solar storm launches on the Sun's farside. Although these storms are not Earth-directed, they are a clear indicator that Solar Cycle 25 is now well underway. The big flare players we saw just two weeks ago are obviously still alive and kicking and as they rotate back into Earth-view over this next week, no doubt we will see a lot more activity. As it is, we are already seeing multiple solar storm launches in a single day just from STEREO's view. In fact, there are so many, it's a bit hard to keep track of them all. This means aurora photographers might soon be getting a treat over the next two weeks while amateur radio operators will enjoy better propagation (albeit with a bit more noise on the bands) on Earth's dayside. Of course, this also means the risk of radio blackouts will also increase so GPS users will need to keep that in mind as there might be degraded GPS reception near dawn and dusk over the next two weeks. Learn the details of the recent big solar storm launches, see the rise of region 2844, and find out what else our Sun has in store this week! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below. Solar Imaging and Analysis: SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/ Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/ Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/ Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch Solar Wind: DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere: GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/ Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/ NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites: NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use. Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
Solar Storm Fake Out & Big Flare Players Near | Solar Storm Forecast 07.17.2021
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLlBXSWIxZy1KeTE4
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen Lions and Tigers and X-flares oh my! this week our son ratchets up the activity big time. We have had 11 solar flares in the past few days, including for big flares and the first X-class flare of Solar Cycle 25! it all started very quickly on July 3rd when region 2939 came up out of nowhere. this region began to rapid fire flares like a holiday firework display causing multiple radio blackouts throughout July 3rd and 4th before finally coming down on the 5th. It also launched multiple solar storms off to the west, but none of them are Earth directed. Although this region has now rotated to the sun's farside it is still firing off solar flares and solar storms! We will definitely keep an eye on it as it returns into Earth view in the next two weeks. Learn the details of the solar fireworks over the July 4th holiday, find out what kind of effects we had here at Earth, and see what else our Sun has in store this week. Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below. Solar Imaging and Analysis: SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/ Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/ Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/ Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch Solar Wind: DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere: GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/ Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/ NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites: NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use. Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
The First X-Flare of Solar Cycle 25 | Space Weather News 07.06.2021
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLkdTUUZyVnFPTlpJ
This forecast was made possible by the generosity of my Patreon community. Without them this video could not be made! Want access to more forecasts like these, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman Links to ionospheric data and maps: foF2, MUF, & ionosonde animations: http://giro.uml.edu/IRTAM/ foF2, MUF, SpE & more: http://www.propquest.co.uk/ MUF (3000km): https://prop.kc2g.com/ MUF plots: https://hfpropagation.com/ NOAA Ionosonde/Digisonde data & Plots: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/
LIVE Informal Solar Storm Forecast for Field Day | 06.25.2021
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLnhyQTRJV1RQVUlF
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen This week our Sun keeps us watching as a filament continues a slow rise off the Earth-facing Sun. It is now traversing through the Earth-strike zone and is poised to launch. If it erupts over the next few days, it could very well be an Earth-directed solar storm so we are keeping our eyes on it. In addition, we have a polar coronal hole in the north that will be sending us some fast solar wind around June 24, and along with a near Earth-directed solar storm that will give us a grazing passage on June 23, we could see some fun aurora shows at high latitudes, with a small chance of fleeting views down to mid-latitudes. We are also hanging on to solar flux levels in the high 70s to low 80s this week, with higher solar flux on the way due to new regions rotating into Earth-view over the next few days. Amateur radio operators should expect radio propagation on Earth's dayside to be in the marginal range, but improving. Finally, GPS users should expect great reception this week all around the globe. Learn details of the coming fast solar wind, catch up on some gorgeous aurora and noctilucent cloud views over this past week and see what else our Sun has in store! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images in this video see links in my previous forecasts. I am saving this space for credits and links to the field reporter photos highlighted this week: Field Reporter Photography: Deb Maluk, Southern Manitoba, Canada: https://twitter.com/dmaluk1/status/1405044928493801472 Donna, Plumas, Manitoba, Canada: https://twitter.com/LachDonna/status/1405415374447853568 https://twitter.com/LachDonna/status/1405525506204655618 Gunjan Sinha, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada: https://twitter.com/gunjansinha2017/status/1405566741556588544 Team Tanner, Alix, Alberta, Canada: https://twitter.com/dartanner/status/1406975613991153671 Siv Heang, Alberta, Canada: https://twitter.com/hoodoos84/status/1405725142324453380 Calgary RASC, Calgary, Alberta, Canada: https://twitter.com/CalgaryRASC/status/1403377057258561536 Noel Bowman, Kent, Washington, USA: https://twitter.com/NoelBowman13/status/1405449268291260418 Kathryn Brooks, Kettle Falls, Washington, USA: https://twitter.com/NoelBowman13/status/1405066713452847106 Corinne, Northern Wisconsin, USA: https://twitter.com/AuroraNorthWI/status/1405194849633058820
A Filament Poised to Launch with Noctilucent Clouds & Aurora | Solar Storm Forecast 06.22.2021
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLk9Oc1BzVDJkdV9v
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen This week our Sun keeps us on our toes with a near Earth-directed solar storm and a "Ring of Fire" solar eclipse. Although the solar storm will go mainly east of Earth, the NASA prediction model shows a slight chance that the storm will graze us on June 11. Likely, we wont even notice the storm's passage, but it is worth mentioning because it could extend the minor storming we've been having at high latitudes over the past several days from a pocket of fast solar wind. There are also four sunspots on the Earth-facing Sun this week and they have boosted the solar flux into the 80s! this means we are well into the marginal range for radio propagation on Earth's dayside and continuing to climb. In fact, we will have more regions rotating into Earth view over the next few days and that should ensure solar flux will continue this upward trend! Learn details on the multiple front-sided and far-sided solar storms launched over the past few days, find out when and where the annular eclipse will be visible, and what else our Sun has in store this week. Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below. Solar Imaging and Analysis: SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/ Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/ Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/ Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch Solar Wind: DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere: GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/ Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/ NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites: NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use. Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
Solar Storms Amid a Solar Eclipse | Space Weather News 06.09.2021
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLjF6cG9JbmtaX2dF
This mini-course presentation was made by and for patrons of Patreon. Without their generosity this series would not have been possible.
Q&A Mini-Course (M2): Introducing the Second Chef- The Near-Earth Space Environment (Part 2)
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLlBIanZPOEx0TEVn
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Daily Forecast Posts

Dr. Tamitha SkovFollow

Dr. Tamitha Skov
TamithaSkovDr. Tamitha Skov@TamithaSkov·
12h

Exactly. This is why I'm a huge proponent of commercial #space endeavors. @elonmusk @richardbranson & friends may be a bit cavalier when it comes to #SpaceWeather, but they force us physicists to transition research tools & models into operations to keep them & their assets safe!

Jake Stehli@eljakeo30

@TamithaSkov Perhaps the huge thing to come out of the "Billionaire race to space" is the ability to get more instrumentation into space as more rockets become available to launch the payloads.

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TamithaSkovDr. Tamitha Skov@TamithaSkov·
24 Jul

Nice catch! Looks like a #solarstorm was launched too! The "halo" signature from the COR2 coronagraph confirms it's headed towards STEREO-A (highlighted by arrows in the back-and-forth (aka "swing animation"). It might be partly Earth-directed, but we need to wait for LASCO data.

Industrial Engineer Irene Quiroz@nenecallas

another C4.3 class flare was apparently on the AR2849. @TamithaSkov @halocme @Birkeland2nd @swmcintosh @JimWindweather 3

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TamithaSkovDr. Tamitha Skov@TamithaSkov·
24 Jul

Are these what #SpaceWeather growing pains look like? NOAA, NASA & MetOffice all predicted a #solarstorm shouldve arrived at STEREO-A early to mid-day July 23 & nothing yet. SWPC also predicts a hit at Earth July 24. Lack of consensus betrays humble beginnings of our young field!

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SpaceWxMikeMike@SpaceWxMike·
21 Jul

Good News!

SWPC just transitioned a new computer model into operations to increase understanding of space weather events and improve space weather forecasting capabilities. Provides a specification of ionosphere and thermosphere conditions with forecasts two days in advance.

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