Weekly Forecast Videos

TamithaSkov

TamithaSkov
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen This past week our Sun has been sending us a cornucopia of space weather phenomena, including launching several solar storms in near-Earth vicinity, firing a big solar flare, and showering us with a radiation storm! Luckily, all of their effects at Earth have been either minor, short-lived, or have missed entirely. Back on the 20th, an M5.5-flare launched a radiation storm that reached the S1-level. It did cause some issues for radio propagation and navigation at high latitudes for about a day before it began to wane. However, we will still deal with its lingering effects in the near-Earth satellite environment over the next day or so. In addition, we have two, back-to-back fast solar wind streams that will hit Earth over this coming week. These could give us some decent aurora chances at high latitudes and possibly some aurora down to mid-latitudes in bursts. GPS users and amateur radio operators should expect minor disruptions on Earth's night side. Solar flux remains in the high 80s to low 90s, which means marginal radio propagation on Earth's dayside, but with new regions rotating into Earth view over the next few days, it looks like conditions could improve soon. Learn the details of the recent solar events, including what remains of the waning radiation storm, find out how the two fast solar wind streams will affect us in the coming days, and see what else our Sun has in store this week! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below. Solar Imaging and Analysis: SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/ Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/ Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/ Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch Solar Wind: DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere: GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/ Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/ NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites: NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use. Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
A Big Flare, A Radiation Storm & Double Fast Wind Streams | Space Weather News 01.24.2022
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLnZzTElZMlkweFFz
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen The Sun has Earth in its' crosshairs this week! We've had no less than three solar storms to contend with all in the past few days. The first solar storm was launched by region 2925 back on January 14 and was supposed to hit yesterday, but it missed Earth, thanks to the fast solar wind from the large coronal hole passing through the Earth-strike zone now. Likely that fast wind stream deflected the solar storm to the west of Earth. But no matter, the fast wind has been sporadically bumping us to storm levels off and on over the past couple days. We even reached G2-level conditions for about three hours right around the 15th, but don't be fooled, as these conditions were more bark than bite. Even aurora chasers had a difficult time catching much more than a glimpse of aurora at mid-latitudes. Still this storm will keep us on our toes over the next couple days, plus we have yet another solar storm on the way. This one was launched by region 2929 in the north. This new solar storm has a better chance of hitting Earth than the previous one did, but it still could be a glancing blow around the 20th. In addition, we have no less than seven active regions on the Earth-facing Sun, which is keeping solar flux boosted into the triple digits and allowing decent radio propagation on Earth's dayside. Big flares and radio blackouts are a slight risk now, but it is not too bad for GPS reception overall. Learn the details surrounding all of this activity and see what else our Sun has in store. Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below. Solar Imaging and Analysis: SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/ Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/ Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/ Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch Solar Wind: DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere: GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/ Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/ NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites: NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use. Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
Fast Wind Storming with More to the East & West | Solar Storm Forecast 01.17.2022
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLjJlWGh3REhZZWVZ
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen This week our Sun brightens our day with some fast solar wind and new eye candy! No less than four new bright regions are now in Earth-view and solar flux is back in the triple digits! This means radio propagation on Earth's dayside is back into the good range. These conditions should continue over this week and quite possibly into next week! Also, with the fast solar wind, we have had some decent aurora shows at high latitudes and even down briefly into mid latitudes. Although we have hit storm levels over the past 24 hours, we will likely bounce between unsettled and active conditions over the next several days. Aurora is still possible at high latitudes, but views will become more fleeting at mid-latitudes. However, with these new active regions rotating into Earth-view there is a very good chance we will have some Earth-directed solar storms launch over the next couple of week. So, aurora photographers that miss this brief fast wind, keep your fingers crossed because there is a significant chance for more aurora soon. Learn the details of these new bright regions, visit the dust storms building on Mars and see what else our Sun has in store! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below. Solar Imaging and Analysis: SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/ Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/ Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/ Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch Solar Wind: DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere: GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/ Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/ NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html Mars: Malin Space Science Systems MARCI/MRO: https://www.msss.com/view.php?page=latest_weather Themis / Mars Odyssey: http://themis.mars.asu.edu/dust_maps Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites: NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use. Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
Solar Bright Regions Bloom & Dust Storms Build on Mars | Space Weather News 01.10.2022
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLkFFaHo0emZ4cmU0
This informal forecast was made by and for patrons of Patreon. Without their generosity, this live forecast would not be possible!
A Pair of Christmas Storms Heads for Earth | Informal Solar Storm Forecast 12.23.2021
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLlBmUGk1Y1lSMzFR
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen Our Sun is popping some big flare potential this week, with no less than seven numbered regions on the Earth-facing disk (up that to nine, as of this afternoon!) Plus more are rotating into Earth view as we speak. This is translating into great radio propagation on Earth's dayside with solar flux back in the triple digits again! Of course with lots of active regions comes radio blackouts, which we are already noticing with one M-class flare earlier today! M-class flare risk tops 20% over the next few days and could very well increase. We even have a small risk for X-class flares as well, mainly from regions 2907 and 2908 so we are keeping a close eye on how things develop. In addition, we also have some solar storms brewing, the first is the fast solar wind hitting Earth now, which has bumped us to storm levels once, and could do so again over the next few days. The next is due to an Earth-directed solar storm that was launched with the M-class flare today. Preliminary analysis indicates this solar storm could hit Earth by December 24! So, while aurora puts on a show at high latitudes now, by the 24th, we could have a decent show down to mid-latitudes as well! Learn the details of all this budding activity, including the fast solar wind, the coming solar storm, and the big flare players, find out when and where aurora might be visible, and see what else our Sun has in store! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below. Solar Imaging and Analysis: SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/ Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/ Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/ Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch Solar Wind: DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere: GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/ Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/ NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites: NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use. Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
Big Flare Players Popping & An Earth-Directed Launch | Solar Storm Forecast 12.20.2021
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLll2WTZ5YXFhTVhv
This mini-course was made by and for patrons of Patreon. Without their generosity this course could not have been made. Note: The automatic, forced mirroring of the video in my You Tube Studio view causes me definite pain, as evidenced by my hilarious diagramming issues. Occasionally, it also causes me to reverse the dawn and dusk sides of Earth. I will list the times I made such errors here: 1:15:00 | Reversed Dawn and Dusk labels 1:37:00 | Reversed dawn and dusk as well as 0600 UT and 1800 UT
Q&A Mini-Course (I2): "The Ionospheric Weather Ballet-- Part 2"
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLlQ4ZGktRDFzLTQw
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Dr. Tamitha SkovFollow

Dr. Tamitha Skov
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halocmeHalo CME@halocme·
24h

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/legacy-wsa-product-website-be-discontinued-february-18-2022

This is an extremely sad announcement by NOAA SWPC. I was indeed one of the four who asked them to continue maintaining the site. It at least gives us an idea of how well the WSA model behaves, before the information gets hidden underneath WSA-Enlil.

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Teresacooper🌸 🙀 Teresa. Author. Photographer@Teresacooper·
26 Jan

The Aurora Borealis waited for me. This gives me hope bc he answers my prayers. Its been snow all week & she danced for me tonight #Stormhour #photography #photooftheday #Nightsky Just what the Dr ordered

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dmaluk1Deb Maluk@dmaluk1·
25 Jan

@chunder10 @dartanner @treetanner @KimHinesSN @JLukinchuk @LauraDuchesne @VernaMogk @PeakToSailPhoto @ImagesByStan @eljakeo30 @shannbil @TamithaSkov @hillsblockview @AngelBrise1 thanks James! I was out and caught this a couple of hours ago...good beamage!🤣

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moraynatureMorayNature@moraynature·
26 Jan

Findhorn Beach Northern Lights January 2022 @TamithaSkov #StormHour #ThePhotoHour #scotland #moray #morayfirth #findhornbeach #findhorn #scottishhighlands #northernlights #auroraborealis #NatureBeauty #Naturephography #BurnsNight #photography #photograph #photo #fujifilm

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swmcintoshScott McIntosh@swmcintosh·
25 Jan

At the request of my buddy @hfsolar1 look at that lovely depletion at the equator - all that junk will be gone in a couple of rotations - stupid boring longitudes shrinking - keep watching #Terminator

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