Weekly Forecast Videos

TamithaSkov

TamithaSkov
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen Our Sun has been busy, but Earth has remained outside the crosshairs for most of the activity. There are quite a few active regions on the Earth-facing disk, including a X-flare player, but with the exception of a few radio blackouts, these regions have not caused us any lasting effects. In fact, no solar storms have been directly launched towards Earth over the past couple of weeks, which has left aurora photographers feeling a bit left out of the fun. Luckily, some fast solar wind from several coronal holes is making the rounds and allowing some brief aurora shows at high latitudes. We also have several filaments crossing the Earth-strike zone this week. One that was on the hairy edge of the strike zone just launched but it looks like it will go southeast of Earth. The other, we are watching very closely. Solar flux is also remaining well into the triple digits, hovering in the 160s and 170s and these conditions will continue easily for the next week or two. This means amateur radio propagation is booming on the dayside of Earth, but it also means GPS users should remain vigilant near dawn and dusk, especially at low latitudes where reception can be impacted the worst. Learn the details of the big-flare players, watch the filament launch, and see what else our Sun has in store this week. Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below. Solar Imaging and Analysis: SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/ Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/ Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/ Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch Solar Wind: DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere: GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/ Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/ NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites: NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use. Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
Lots of Lively Poised to Erupt | Space Weather News 05.22.2022
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLmc4dDJVNFFLQUJB
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen Our Sun continues to keep us busy with two X-flare players on the Earth-facing Sun along with several filaments poised to erupt as they cross the Earth-Strike Zone. We already have one Earth-directed solar storm on its way to Earth that should give us a glancing blow by early May 9. This solar storm is expected to be pretty weak so the chance for aurora views may be limited to high latitudes, but with all the activity, we could easily see more chances for aurora over the next two weeks. Part of this is due to a new region that will be rotating more into Earth view of the next few days. This region is a solar storm producer and may be a big flare player as well. We will know more in the coming days. Amateur radio operators and GPS users should stay vigilant for radio blackouts on Earth's dayside, where radio signals can be impacted. GPS users should be especially careful near dawn and dusk, where GPS reception is often troublesome anyway. Learn the details of the coming solar storm, watch the X-flare players, regions 3004 and 3006 in action, and see what else our Sun has in store! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below. Solar Imaging and Analysis: SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/ Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/ Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/ Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch Solar Wind: DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere: GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/ Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/ NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites: NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use. Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
Two X-Flare Players, Two Filaments & a Storm on the Way | Solar Storm Forecast 05.08.2022
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLlBVQXJSMVFYVEFn
This Q&A mini-course was made by and for patrons of Patreon. If it weren't for their generosity, this course could not have ben made.
Q&A Mini-Course (E1): "Space Weather Effects at Ground Level-- Part 1
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLnJ1bFN2WGVTR2hV
This forecast was made by and for Patrons of Patreon. Without their generosity, this forecast would not be possible. This Space Weather News forecast was also sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below. Solar Imaging and Analysis: SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/ Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/ Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/ Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch Solar Wind: DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere: GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/ Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/ NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites: NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use. Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
Informal Live Solar Storm Forecast 04.23.2022
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLmtZdjhDc1NvdC1V
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen This week our Sun dims down a bit when it comes to sunspots, but not solar activity! We have an Earth-directed solar storm on its way. It will be followed by some fast solar wind that will serve to enhance the impact of this solar storm. Aurora photographers should get a good chance for aurora views even down to mid-latitudes over the next few days. Amateur radio operators and GPS users might experience some disruptions, especially on Earth's nightside when the solar storm hits, but on Earth's dayside radio propagation and GPS reception should be top notch. No radio blackouts are expected over the next couple of days, but we will have new regions rotating into Earth view near week's end, and these might put big solar flares back on the menu! Learn the details of the coming solar storm, including views of the gorgeous filament launch from the Sun, and see why amateur radio operators and GPS users can rejoice on Earth's dayside but should remain vigilant on Earth's nightside this week! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below. Solar Imaging and Analysis: SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/ Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/ Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/ Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch Solar Wind: DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere: GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/ Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/ NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites: NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use. Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
A Solar Storm Comes with a Fast Wind Chaser | Space Weather News 04.13.2022
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLlFaSG5XRV8xOUsw
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen After no less than 12 M-class flares,1 X-class flare, 3 Radiations storms, and 2 Earth-directed Solar storms, region 2975 finally rotates behind the West limb of the Sun. If only that meant solar activity would slow down. Nope! Believe it or not, big flares are still on the menu, at least for the next few days and we have yet another Earth-directed solar storm on the way! This means that even without region 2975, conditions remain much as they did last week! Learn the details of the coming solar storm, find out when and where aurora will be visible, see why amateur radio propagation remains good, GPS users still need to be vigilant when it comes to reception, and catch up on aurora highlights from all the recent solar storming! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images in this video please see the links in my other forecasts. I need to save this space for the credits to the aurora field reporter photos highlighted this week. Aurora Field Reporter Credits: Sashmit Patil, Murmansk, Russia: https://twitter.com/PatilSushmit/status/1510296760677150725 Ruslan Merzlyakov, Blokhus, Denmark: https://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=183376 Lisa Pattenden, Scotland: https://twitter.com/London_Lady/status/1509590021111701504 Sam Bose, Torridon, Scotland: https://twitter.com/sbose33/status/1509479374181093380 Paul Martin, Ireland: https://twitter.com/Tyrone_skies/status/1509999699641700366 James Rowley-Hill, Norfolk, UK: https://twitter.com/chunder10/status/1510297754194661381 Christopher Mathews, Hraunborg, Iceland: https://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=183120 Mike MacLellan, Bonaventure Quebec, Canada: https://twitter.com/PeakToSailPhoto/status/1509556767151194112 Jamie Southern Ontario, Canada: https://twitter.com/Photogr18810935/status/1510324720998273031 Kim Hines, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada: https://twitter.com/KimHinesSN/status/1509955635135148033 Notanee Bourassa, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada: https://twitter.com/DJHardwired/status/1509553897240776706 Harlan Thomas, Kananaskis County, Alberta, Canada: https://twitter.com/theauroraguy/status/1509910253168578564 Vincent Ledvina, Churchill, Manitoba, Canada: https://twitter.com/Vincent_Ledvina/status/1510031511441006594 https://twitter.com/Vincent_Ledvina/status/1509428248941322240 David McColm, Whistler, British Columbia, Canada: https://twitter.com/davidlmccolm/status/1509575532953804800 Vern, Western Nebraska, USA: https://twitter.com/VernChronicles/status/1509415852851957765 MaryBeth Kiczenski, Wyoming, USA: https://twitter.com/MKiczenski/status/1509552448255365125 https://twitter.com/MKiczenski/status/1510251905506754570 : North Dakota Jeff Knesebeck, Waterville Plateau, Washington, USA: https://twitter.com/JeffreyK_WA/status/1509907023340531715 Leanna Whipple, Central Iowa, USA: https://twitter.com/LeannaWhipple/status/1510113517675950083 Isaac, Copper Harbor, Michigan, USA: https://twitter.com/ID_photo_graphy/status/1510117017919045638 Jake Stehli, Winona, Minnesota, USA: https://twitter.com/eljakeo30/status/1510066247140052997 Tom Warner, Pactola Lake, South Dakota, USA: https://twitter.com/ztresearch/status/1509545230856597510 Jed Christoph, Western Montana: https://twitter.com/JedNBCMT/status/1510311138377957376 Andy Davey, Roxburgh Gorge, New Zealand: https://twitter.com/andydavey/status/1510111032249057280 Ian Griffin, Flight over New Zealand @FlyAirNZ: https://twitter.com/iangriffin/status/1509942422893064195 https://twitter.com/iangriffin/status/1510258397320708097
Goodbye Big Flare Player, Hello Earth-Strike Zone | Solar Storm Forecast 04.05.2022
YouTube Video VVVrWGpkRFEtZGIweHo4ZjRQS2dLc2FnLlN4VTZMdjMwRHVR
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Daily Forecast Posts

Dr. Tamitha SkovFollow

Dr. Tamitha Skov
Retweet on TwitterDr. Tamitha Skov Retweeted
SpaceWxMikeMike@SpaceWxMike·
18 May

Here is every single M + X Class Solar Flare to date during Solar Cycle 25. April was by far the most active month so far.

I guess you could say #SC25 is heating up? 🔥☀️📈

*The plot starts in January 2020 and ends today*

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Retweet on TwitterDr. Tamitha Skov Retweeted
StaceyFoxArtistStacey Fox@StaceyFoxArtist·
13 May

The #sun today and its #sunspots in beautiful #PureMichigan #spaceweather #Astrophotography #space #sunspots #spaceweather @SPACEdotcom @TamithaSkov #astronomy #solar @zwoasi #asi1600 @daystar_filters #quarkchromosphere @svtelescopes #SV70T #NASA

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TamithaSkovDr. Tamitha Skov@TamithaSkov·
13 May

From the low energy protons (bottom) it's clear the incoming #solarstorm passed south of Earth. There's a rise of particles, but the peak isnt sharp (a clue the shock is nearby but missed us). Both magnetic field & plasma show "wake" of a nearby solar storm but not a direct hit.

🌟🌟SpaceGirlHeidi🌟🌟@321FlaSpaceGirl

https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg
Hi Dr @TamithaSkov !!
What's up with the #StealthPlayer??
Cool!!

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TamithaSkovDr. Tamitha Skov@TamithaSkov·
11 May

Twin Flare! Regions 3004 and 3007 both fire at the same time (left image) causing a combined M2.2-class flare. A long-duration R1 #RadioBlackout is ongoing so expect HF radio propagation issues on Earth's dayside & #GPS reception issues near dawn & dusk (colored regions on map).

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Retweet on TwitterDr. Tamitha Skov Retweeted
halocmeHalo CME@halocme·
10 May

The latest X1.5 flare from AR 13006 was eruptive, marked by a gorgeous coronal wave.

But the possible effect on Earth may need professional evaluation by @TamithaSkov @erikapal and @chrisoutofspace . This may be only a glancing blow as the CME was largely directed south. https://twitter.com/judithdepatoul/status/1524055379797229568

Judith de Patoul@judithdepatoul

@TheSunToday Indeed here the large and beautiful coronal wave detected by Solar Demon Dimming Detection tool @ORB_KSB.

Enjoy! 🤩

👉https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings_details.php?science=0&dimming_id=3520&delay=80&prefix=pBDI_&small=1&aid=0&graph=1

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