This week we have a partly Earth-directed solar storm sandwiched between two pockets of fast solar wind! The storm on its way will graze us to the south by December 3rd. NASA and NOAA prediction models disagree as to exactly when, but we can expect impact to be sometime between mid-day on December 2 and late December 3. This wide window doesn’t really matter all that much considering this solar storm is already preceded by some minor storming due to the first pocket of fast wind that is hitting now and will be followed by more! This means storming could occur from now until week’s end, especially at high latitudes. We have already jumped to solar storm levels and seen some gorgeous aurora at high latitudes over the past 24 hours and could do so again. As for mid-latitudes, the chances for aurora over the next few days may be sporadic, but conditions will look more favorable as the solar storm arrives. In addition to this activity at Earth, we have had some new active regions emerge on the Sun, which is good news for amateur radio operators. We even have a small chance for an M-class flare, although the possibility is still pretty remote. We will be monitoring the growth of these regions over the next few days in case they turn out to be substantial, but for now, solar flux is hovering near the low 90s. This means marginal to good radio propagation on Earth’s dayside. As for GPS reception, there may be issues near dawn and dusk and near aurora over the course of this week, so stay vigilant if you drive, fly safe if you are a UAV pilot, and calibrate your magnetometers often! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Activity remains a bit subdued this week with only pockets of fast solar wind that have brought sporadic aurora to high latitudes, nothing like the show we saw a couple of weeks ago. Aurora photographers at high latitudes could get some decent views through the early part of the week, but aurora chasers at mid-latitudes will need likely need to watch from the sidelines this time. Amateur radio operators must also wait as we are experiencing a lull in solar flux, which has dipped back into the high 70s over this past week. Luckily, these conditions will change soon as a returning bright region (old M-flare player, region 2891) rotates into view again in about three to four days. This region, along with a few others will begin boosting solar flux back into the mid-80s over the course of this week, possibly higher. This means radio propagation on Earth’s dayside will begin improving to the higher side of marginal by the end of the week. As for GPS users, the lack in activity and the dip in solar flux actually serves to aid GPS reception, so enjoy the good conditions all over the globe this week. Learn the details of the fast solar wind, see the hint of new regions that will rotate into view within a week’s time, and catch up on spectacular aurora highlights from the recent G3-level solar storm! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
This week we say “goodbye” to region 2891, the last of the Big Flare Players that caused the fireworks we saw last week, and “hello” to some peace and quiet. Although region 2895 is showing a little bit of activity, it is not yet filling the footsteps of it’s predecessors. However, we are watching it for signs of growth. Meanwhile, just as region 2891 begins to rotate out of view, it fires off a goodbye kiss with an M2-class flare and a solar storm. Luckily, the solar storm is not Earth-directed. However, this region may retain it’s strong flare potential as it transits the Sun’s farside. If it survives it’s farside passage we could be in for big flares again in about two weeks time so amateur radio operators and GPS should enjoy the peace and quiet while it lasts. Aurora photographers at high latitudes get a slight chance for aurora this week with a small pocket of fast solar wind, but those at mid-latitudes will likely need to wait by the sidelines for some stronger fast solar wind, which will come in about 10 days from a better formed coronal hole that is just beginning to rotate into Earth view. See region 2891 fire off it’s “goodbye kiss,” learn how far aurora dipped down into mid-latitudes during the recent solar storm, and see what else our Sun has in store! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
This week our Sun is getting primed for some real activity! Although space weather has been quiet this week, multiple new regions are rotating into Earth-view (at least four) and several of them are solar storm producers. We also have one region that has the potential to become a real M-flare player. GPS users should be enjoying good reception right now, but that could change later in this week and into the next. Solar flux is also increasing rapidly, moving up through the high 70s last week into the high 80s, and possibly ramping up into the high 90s by mid-week. We could even see triple digits again by the end of the week! This means we are moving into the good range for radio propagation on Earth’s dayside. Likely these conditions will last over the next two weeks! As for aurora possibilities, we will need to wait for a few more days before any of these regions rotate into the Earth-strike zone, so aurora photographers will have only a small pocket of fast solar wind to give a slim chance of aurora views right around mid-week, but those chances are pretty much reserved for high-latitude chasers. Learn details of the new active regions rotating into Earth view and how they might affect you, catch up on aurora pics from the recent G2-level solar storm, and see what else our Sun has in store! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
A lot of exciting things are happening this week. We have a solar storm on its way to Earth now! It should hit later today and bring with it a good chance for aurora at mid-latitudes. It all started with region 2882 firing an M1.6-flare back on October 9, during which it launched a gorgeous full-halo eruption. This solar storm has been driving a shockwave and a weak solar radiation storm that may impact amateur radio propagation and GPS reception over the next few days. It will slowly subside once the solar storm hits Earth. Until then, expect high-latitude communications and GPS reception to be slightly impacted. In addition, we also have a small coronal hole that is rotating into the Earth-strike zone and should give us some fast solar wind as a chaser to this solar storm. This means we may have some level of disturbance throughout much of this week. Solar flux continues to be in the mid-80s which means amateur radio propagation will remain marginal on the Earth’s dayside, except when the solar storm hits. Learn the details of the coming solar storm, watch the big-flare player region 2882 work its magic, and see what else our Sun has in store!
Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
This week our star ups the stakes with several new big-flare players, including a fast growing region (2880) that looks to be an X-flare player as well. NOAA is giving the region about a 5% change of firing off an X-class flare over the next few days. We will see if that risk rises as we follow its explosive growth over this next week. The nice thing is this new activity has bumped the solar flux back up into the triple digits again (I told you it was coming)! Sure enough, we are sitting at 100 right now and could see 115 by the end of the week. This means amateur radio on Earth’s dayside is back into the good range so enjoy. In addition we have an Earth-directed solar storm on it’s way to Earth. “The Big Three” agencies (namely NOAA, NASA, and the MetOffice) disagree slightly on when and how the solar storm will hit, but it should be sometime between late September 30 and mid-day October 1. As such, aurora photographers should stay vigilant as we could get aurora, even down to mid-latitudes! Learn the details of the coming solar storm, watch the new X-flare player grow over the past few days, catch up on aurora photos from recent solar storms, and see what else our Sun has in store! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
This week our Sun raises the bar with no less than six sunspots emerging in Earth view. These regions have been growing so fast that not all of them have been numbered yet (at the time of the forecast shoot). This means solar flux has shot up tremendously over the past few days and will continue climbing easily over this next week. We are rapidly moving through the 80s right now and could see triple digits again by next week. Amateur radio operators should notice much improved radio propagation on Earth’s dayside in the coming days. In addition, we are also seeing an increase in big flare risk, which will also likely increase in the coming days. The main player is region 2871, but other regions may join the fray over the next few days. On top of this, we also have a coronal hole rotating into the Earth-strike zone, which will bring us some fast solar wind and the chance for aurora as we near the weekend. Aurora photographers at high and mid-latitudes should stay alert and keep their camera batteries charged this week as we also have an increased chance of Earth-directed solar storms with so many active regions now in play. Learn the details of the emerging new regions, find out when and where aurora might be visible, and see what else our Sun has in store this week!
This week our Sun keeps us on pins and needles as four new active regions rotate through Earth-view. Not only are two of these regions big flare players (we have a 5% chance for X-flares), but several solar storms have been launched over the past couple days that are either grazing Earth now (or soon will be). In addition we have an unstable filament rotating through the Earth-strike zone now and it is poised to erupt. If it does over the next few days, it will likely be Earth-directed. Aurora photographers should stay comfortably alert for the remainder of this week as we might have some sporadic aurora. This is also good news for amateur radio operators, as solar flux peaked over 100 for a few days this week. Although it is back down into the low 90s as of right now, every time we cross into triple digits, it is a good sign that cycle 25 is continuing to rise! However, with this rising activity comes the potential for radio blackouts, and this week is no exception. Regions 2866 and 2868 are both big-flare players and so both radio operators and GPS users could see issues with signal reception over the next few days, especially on Earth’s dayside and near dawn and dusk. Learn the details of the coming solar storms, watch how regions 2866 and 2868 are developing, and see what else our Sun has in store this week!
This week our Sun turns up the brightness with no less than four new active regions emerging in Earth-view. All of these regions are growing rapidly, in fact, one of them, region 2864 has launched an earth-directed solar storm. This storm is wispy and likely wont cause too big of a disturbance, but early predictions indicate impact at Earth late on September 9. As such, aurora views should be visible at high-latitudes, but at mid-latitudes, as things stand now, there is only a slim chance. Amateur radio operators and emergency responders should be smiling as these bright regions are also boosting the solar flux into the high 80s. If they continue to grow at this pace we could see solar flux into the 90s within this week, which means radio propagation on Earth’s dayside continues inch ever closer to the “good” range. Although they are growing rapidly, these sunspot regions are not currently a risk for big flares, but they are firing C-class flares. Thus GPS users should remain vigilant near dawn and dusk as GPS reception could be less reliable for a few hours straddling both sunrise and sunset. Learn the details of the coming solar storm, watch the fast rise of the numerous sunspot clusters, and see what else our Sun has in store this week!
All eyes are on the Sun this week as there are so many changes afoot. First, that massive filament we have been watching rotating through the Earth-strike zone has erupted! Early indications are that it has launched at least a partially-Earth-directed solar storm (we are already seeing an eruption signature in coronagraphs) so we might have a storm heading our way. (I will be sure to update my community on Patreon with the details). In addition to this filament, we have multiple new bright regions rotating into Earth view that are not only boosting solar flux, but are also solar storm producers, and possibly even big flare players! Learn the details of the massive filament in the strike zone, watch the new regions rotate into view, and find out how these will affect both GPS reception and amateur radio this week.